In 2017-18, the Alberta’s budgetary deficit is forecast to be $10.3 billion and the province’s net debt will increase by $12.8 billion. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (2017) has projected that Alberta’s debt will continue to grow relative to GDP and concluded that the current fiscal policy in Alberta is not sustainable over the long term.
Parliamentary Budget Officer. “Fiscal Sustainability Report 2017” Ottawa, (October, 2017)
The Alberta’s Fiscal Future (AFF) project is a two-year research/public engagement initiative providing the public and policy makers with in-depth analyses of Alberta’s fiscal situation and policy options to address it. With the AFF project, The School of Public Policy will release a series of research papers on Alberta’s fiscal issues and hold three events. It will also engage the public through social media, radio and television interviews, op-eds, meetings with influential groups and government officials.
The research program is organized around three broad themes and a series of policy questions:
These research papers will examine the evolution of Alberta’s fiscal situation since the 1970s and investigate how the Alberta government has responded to shocks in its non-renewable resource revenues. How large is the fiscal adjustment that will be required to achieve a sustainable fiscal system in the province?
Health care spending represents over 40 percent of the provincial budget. Are there better ways to provide health care services by, for example, changing the ways health services are delivered, physicians are paid, and hospitals are funded? The other expenditure areas also need to be reformed, with rising case-loads for the social assistance programs, the need to provide high quality education and training program, and the need to develop other options for financing infrastructure spending.
The competitiveness of the tax system in Alberta (including personal and corporate income taxes, provincial and municipal property taxes, resource royalties, and carbon taxes) is crucial for maintaining high levels of investment and innovation, which sustain well-paid jobs. Can we reform the business and personal income tax systems to regain Alberta’s competitiveness, while continuing to raise substantial revenues to fund valued public services? Is it time to seriously consider the adoption of a provincial sales tax in Alberta?
Publications
October 2019
Author: Richard E. Mueller: Public Sector Wages in Alberta: How do these Compare to Other Provinces and the Private Sector?
September 2019
Author: Bev Dahlby and Ergete Ferede: The Effect of Corporate Income Tax on the Economic Growth Rates of the Canadian Province
Author: Bev Dahlby and Ergete Ferede: Simulating the Growth Effects of the Corporate Income Tax Rate Cuts in Alberta
Author: Kenneth McKenzie: Altering the Tax Mix in Alberta
June 2019
Author: Bev Dahlby: Reforming the Federal Fiscal Stabilization Program
May 2019
Author: Trevor Tombe: Fiscal Policy Trends: Balancing Alberta’s Budget by 2022 is Only Part of Alberta’s Long-Run Fiscal Challenge
March 2019
Author: Melville McMillan: Provincial Public Infrastructure Spending and Financing in Alberta: Searching for a Better Course
November 2018
Author: Trevor Tombe: Alberta’s Long-Term Fiscal Future
October 2018
Author: Melville McMillan: Fiscal Policy Trends: Alberta’s Government Spending: How Big a Problem?
Authors: Ronald Kneebone and Margarita Wilkins: 50 Years of Government of Alberta Budgeting
September 2018
Author: F.L. (Ted) Morton: Why Alberta Needs a Fiscal Constitution
Author: Ergete Ferede: Alberta’s Fiscal Responses to Fluctuations in Non-Renewable-Resource Revenue
Author: Ergete Ferede: Fiscal Policy Trends: The Long-Term Consequences of Fiscal Responses to Resource Revenue Fluctuations
May 2018
Authors: Philip Bazel, Daria Crisan, Bev Dahlby: Fiscal Policy Trends: Who will pay the interest on Alberta’s public debt?
March 2018
Authors: Bev Dahlby: Fiscal Policy Trends: The Path to Balance or the Road to Ruin, Analysis of Path to Budget Balance
Authors: Bev Dahlby: Fiscal Policy Trends: Commentary for the Provincal Budget March 22, 2018
Authors: Ron Kneebone and Margarita Wilkins: Social Policy Trends: Alberta Government Program Spending
October 2017
Authors: Janice MacKinnon and Jack Mintz: Putting the Alberta Budget on a New Trajectory
Presentations/Materials
February 2019
The Origins and the Size of Alberta’s Fiscal Problem
- Ron Kneebone, Scientific Director, Social Policy and Health Program, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary.
- Trevor Tombe, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Calgary and Research Fellow, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary
Infrastructure Spending and Public Sector Compensation
- Melville McMillan, Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, and Fellow, Institute for Public Economics, University of Alberta
Richard Mueller, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Lethbridge
Fiscal Rules and Revenue Enhancement
- Jack Mintz, President’s Fellow, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary
- Ted Morton, Executive-in-Residence, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary
Presentation at the Economic Society of Alberta event, “The Pros and Cons of a Sales Tax for Alberta“
Media
June 2019
Corbella: Changes needed to a federal fund to stop Alberta from getting robbed
Why this economist says equalization reform isn’t the answer if Alberta wants help during its busts
Opinion: Equalization anger against Ottawa should be focused on another program
January 2019
Op-Ed: Equalization Anger Against Ottawa Should be Focused on Another Program
November 2018
Alberta’s deficit could hit $40 billion by 2040, Calgary economist warns
Bell: Alberta, the party’s over with no leader at the helm
If Albertans want to avoid fiscal disaster, the only choices left are difficult ones
Report paints bleak fiscal picture for Alberta in years to come
Action is required today’: Economist sounds alarm on Alberta’s ballooning deficit
New taxes, spending restraint needed to avoid fiscal cliff in Alberta, report warns
Kenney calls for oil production cut as report paints bleak fiscal future for Alberta
EDITORIAL: Tough choices ahead for Alberta, no matter which party leads
September 2018
Looking to our province’s past to fix our financial future
Alberta NDP on a path to budget ‘crisis,’ former Saskatchewan finance minister warns
Time to renew efforts to get off the budget roller-coaster
March 2018
Jack Mintz: Three sneaky tricks hide the ugly truth about government budgets
February 2018
“Panelists push for Alberta sales tax but not everyone agrees”
Events
An important component of the AFF project is public events, which are meant to draw the public’s attention to the fiscal issues facing Alberta and what steps can be taken to address them. New events coming soon.
If you would like to be kept informed about the release of research papers, planning of events and are interested in contributing to the Alberta’s Fiscal Futures project, please contact:
Bev Dahlby, Research Director bgdahlby@ucalgary.ca